Conflict with Iran and Markets - 3-26-2026

When we wrote our March 1 newsletter, the conflict in the Middle East was just beginning and we provided some initial thoughts to contextualize events. We understand the headlines about market volatility, market pullbacks and escalating oil prices can be jarring.

I go back to this chart or ones similar to it whenever we are dealing with geopolitical events that drive the markets. One thing that is readily apparent is the upward long term trend of the market after market disruptions.

The takeaway is markets have consistently demonstrated resilience over time, recovering and reaching new highs after periods of uncertainty. As of this moment, the market is only down about -4.5% from its all time high and it doesn’t even qualify as a market pullback until we have a 5% retreat.

Another key point is this. Historically markets have strong one-year forward returns after a geopolitical event with an average of +14.2%.

Our last point is one we make frequently. Time in the market is much more important than timing the market.  Based on S&P 500 returns over the past 25 years, a $1,000 investment would have grown to about $5,859 if an investor remained fully invested. However, missing just the single best day reduced the ending value to $5,251, and missing only 10 of the best days cut the value to roughly $2,609.

If you have questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us. 

To learn more about Meridian's market views and how they are incorporated into investment portfolios, reach out to us to schedule an introductory phone call at (843) 212-6828 or contact@meridianria.com.

About Joshua

Joshua Henry is the founder and Managing Principal of Meridian Financial Advisory (meridianria.com), an independent, fee-based wealth management company located in South Carolina, serving people locally and across the country, that focuses on providing wealth management solutions primarily to affluent individuals over age 50 and their families. Joshua is passionate about helping people have a better life by designing and implementing customized financial plans that bring clarity and confidence. Joshua is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™(CFP®), a Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) Professional, and earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from Cedarville University and a Master of Business Administration degree with a concentration in Corporate Finance from Salve Regina University. The courses for the Corporate Finance concentration were taken from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. He has held workshops on Social Security Claiming Strategies, IRA Planning, and Career Coaching for Executives in between jobs. Josh has also taught finance at the university level. When he’s not working, Josh teaches adult Sunday School at his church in Pawley Island, SC. He enjoys traveling, reading, working out and time with his family. To learn more about Josh, connect with him on LinkedIn